Statistics and Facial Recognition
Dear Dude on a Bike,
Today you annoyed me. I was driving to work, and you were biking next to me on El Camino. I could just tell that you were a Smug Bicycler. You with your stocky little calves, pumping away. Like "Hey! I am awesome. I don't drive because I am an Environmentalist. And look! I am practically beating all you cars anyway."
I could tell you were smug because you were cocky enough to not stay all the way to the right. You thought you were going fast enough to play with the Big Girls (like me) in car traffic. Well you were not. You were only going fast enough for me to not be able to pass you.
I was annoyed until I looked at your face. Oh my goodness! Dwight Schrute on a bicycle! And then I thought about how you sobbed all night at your beet farm, pining after Angela. And my anger melted into deep compassion.
Love,
Ashlyn
As you can see from the above letter, I clearly have an issue with correctly recognizing people's faces. At this point in my life, I've lived too many places and met too many people. So things get confusing! A lot of times I am guilty of committing the social equivalent of what we call Type I and Type II errors in statistics.
Assume the Null (Ho) Hypothesis is: I don't know who you are
The Alternative (Ha) Hypothesis is: I know who you are
Type I error: Assuming Ho when Ha is true
I don't usually commit this error. But I did the other day, and I'm embarrassed by it. I had Saya with me on campus. It was hot and I just bought my lunch and I was in a hurry and my arms were full and I was pushing a stroller. Just as I was about to sit down at the last available table, this other woman sat down first. I gave her my best guilt-inducing "How could you?" look.
Then she turns to me and says, "Hi! Oh! You finally had your baby! She's gorgeous!"
I realize belatedly that this woman is a distant acquaintance from the School of Education. Whoops. I try to nonchalantly pretend that I didn't make that face at her. By converting my scowl (as subtly as possible) into something resembling a squinting-in-the-sunlight face. I managed some awkward, friendly conversation, all while maintaining this face. Just so she would be deluded into thinking that my original "I Hate You" scowl was actually just a friendly way of saying "Wow, it's bright out here!"
Type II error: Assuming Ha when Ho is true
Unfortunately, I do this A LOT (unfortunate, considering that stats folks consider Type II errors to be more egregious than Type I errors...better to set a guilty man free than to imprison an innocent one, blah, blah, blah). I used to think I committed these errors because I didn't wear my contacts when I was supposed to. But now I think I just have terrible facial recognition skills.
Not once, but TWICE this week, I waved hello to people on campus. Who then gave me friendly, puzzled looks. Because we did not know each other from Adam.
Also: A few months ago, I TOTALLY saw Bruce Willis standing in line to get into a restaurant in SF. I forced Kris to circle the block in our car to get a look at....what turned out to just be a random bald guy.
And today, I saw Dwight Schrute on a bicycle (see that? I brought the story full circle, boys and girls).
The moral of this story is: Committing Type I and Type II errors in social situations are costly and awkward.
And, for you stats geeks out there: My alpha is as high as Amy Winehouse.
Today you annoyed me. I was driving to work, and you were biking next to me on El Camino. I could just tell that you were a Smug Bicycler. You with your stocky little calves, pumping away. Like "Hey! I am awesome. I don't drive because I am an Environmentalist. And look! I am practically beating all you cars anyway."
I could tell you were smug because you were cocky enough to not stay all the way to the right. You thought you were going fast enough to play with the Big Girls (like me) in car traffic. Well you were not. You were only going fast enough for me to not be able to pass you.
I was annoyed until I looked at your face. Oh my goodness! Dwight Schrute on a bicycle! And then I thought about how you sobbed all night at your beet farm, pining after Angela. And my anger melted into deep compassion.
Love,
Ashlyn
As you can see from the above letter, I clearly have an issue with correctly recognizing people's faces. At this point in my life, I've lived too many places and met too many people. So things get confusing! A lot of times I am guilty of committing the social equivalent of what we call Type I and Type II errors in statistics.
Assume the Null (Ho) Hypothesis is: I don't know who you are
The Alternative (Ha) Hypothesis is: I know who you are
Type I error: Assuming Ho when Ha is true
I don't usually commit this error. But I did the other day, and I'm embarrassed by it. I had Saya with me on campus. It was hot and I just bought my lunch and I was in a hurry and my arms were full and I was pushing a stroller. Just as I was about to sit down at the last available table, this other woman sat down first. I gave her my best guilt-inducing "How could you?" look.
Then she turns to me and says, "Hi! Oh! You finally had your baby! She's gorgeous!"
I realize belatedly that this woman is a distant acquaintance from the School of Education. Whoops. I try to nonchalantly pretend that I didn't make that face at her. By converting my scowl (as subtly as possible) into something resembling a squinting-in-the-sunlight face. I managed some awkward, friendly conversation, all while maintaining this face. Just so she would be deluded into thinking that my original "I Hate You" scowl was actually just a friendly way of saying "Wow, it's bright out here!"
Type II error: Assuming Ha when Ho is true
Unfortunately, I do this A LOT (unfortunate, considering that stats folks consider Type II errors to be more egregious than Type I errors...better to set a guilty man free than to imprison an innocent one, blah, blah, blah). I used to think I committed these errors because I didn't wear my contacts when I was supposed to. But now I think I just have terrible facial recognition skills.
Not once, but TWICE this week, I waved hello to people on campus. Who then gave me friendly, puzzled looks. Because we did not know each other from Adam.
Also: A few months ago, I TOTALLY saw Bruce Willis standing in line to get into a restaurant in SF. I forced Kris to circle the block in our car to get a look at....what turned out to just be a random bald guy.
And today, I saw Dwight Schrute on a bicycle (see that? I brought the story full circle, boys and girls).
The moral of this story is: Committing Type I and Type II errors in social situations are costly and awkward.
And, for you stats geeks out there: My alpha is as high as Amy Winehouse.
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